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2018 Predictions: Baseless Speculation |
The In Reality Podcast

In Reality Podcast

Welcome back for a new season of the In Reality podcast, which covers all things Augmented & Virtual Reality. In Reality features industry news, commentary, and perspective from AR/VR veterans and experts.

In Reality is co-hosted by Marxent’s Joe Johnson and Joe Bardi. Johnson is the Creative Director at Marxent, and has been in the AR/VR industry for 5 years following a stint on Microsoft’s Office UX team. Bardi is Marxent’s Senior Content Strategist, and has been in the industry for about 2 years, after having spent more than a decade in print and TV media.

In this week’s episode, we’re talking about what’s to come in 2018, according to a list of predictions graciously provided by Marxent’s resident PhD, Dr. Ken Moser. Will Dr. Ken’s prognostications survive the withering knowitallism of the two Joes? Listen and find out.

Notes:

We want to express our gratitude to Dr. Ken for sending us his list of predictions, and then going along with it when we talked about it behind his back. Sorry Ken! We promise to have you on a future episode so that you can point out all the errors we made. We also promised links in the show notes, and here they are:

Inside the Two Years That Shook Facebook — And The World

What is Diminished Reality? Dr. Ken explains

ARKit 1.5 examples show how vertical surface mapping upgrades augmented reality in iOS 11.3

Artificial Intelligence can ‘evolve’ to solve problems

Augmented Reality Glasses: What You Can Buy Now (or Soon)

Amazon opens its own rainforest in Seattle, hoping innovative employee ideas blossom

Finally: The Joes were guests on Sunday’s edition of Thunder Nerds, a tech-tastic podcast where they talked about Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, technophobia and much more. Thanks for having us, Frederick! Check out the archived video here.

Thanks for listening. We really do appreciate it! Enjoyed the show? Please check out previous episodes at the In Reality Soundcloud page, or subscribe at the iTunes store, Stitcher or the Google Play Music.

Questions, comments, concerns? Email us at inreality@marxentlabs.com.


FULL TRANSCRIPT

[music]

00:01 Joe Johnson: Welcome to the In Reality podcast. Now starting in three, two, one.

[music]

00:07 JJ: Welcome to season two of the In Reality podcast, where we’re covering all things augmented and virtual reality. The In Reality podcast is hosted by Joe Bardi and Joe Johnson, and features news, commentary and perspective from industry veterans and experts, which I suppose we are. [chuckle]

00:22 Joe Bardi: Industry veterans, experts, and us. [chuckle]

00:24 JJ: And whoever we are. First up, introductions. I’m Joe Johnson, creative director of Marxent Labs, and I’ve been in the AR and VR industry for five years now at Marxent.

00:32 JB: And I’m Joe Bardi. I’m the senior content strategist here at Marxent, and I’ve been in the industry for about two years now.

00:37 JJ: We’re finally back to kick off the new season. And, of course, we’re going to start it off with a bunch of baseless speculation. Woo! We have a comprehensive list of predictions for this year from our resident PhD, Dr. Ken Moser, and we’re going to explore what sounds like it’s going to happen and what sounds way off the mark. We’ve got a lot of predictions to cover, so let’s get going.

[music]

01:04 JJ: Alright. So first off, Ken thinks that HTC is going to announce a wireless Vive. What do you think, Joe?

01:11 JB: That has already came true, I believe.

01:14 JJ: Wow, he’s psychic.

01:15 JB: Yes, yes. So I should give a little background on Ken’s list here real quick. So I got Ken’s list about a month ago. So there are certain things on his list. He has sent me a couple of updates since then to be like, “Number six already happened,” or whatever. So I just wanna throw that out there as we start to go through the list, but I think at CES, they announced a wireless add-on for the Vive, or it may have already even existed before that.

01:36 JJ: I would say that it’s probably overdue. I know that when we’re using it in retail locations, the wires are a serious, serious problem.

01:42 JB: Yes, and in fact, we actually had a conversation about trying to get our hands on one, and the answer was, “It’s not out yet, but it’s coming in the summer.”

01:50 JJ: I’m just glad we didn’t have to make it for ourselves. I’m pretty sure we were looking at it some point.

01:53 JB: Yes. Yeah, wires are back.

01:56 JJ: Taking apart one of those docking boxes and figuring out a way to wirelessly transmit the information.

02:00 JB: It feels like something we would try to do.

02:02 JJ: Alright, well, one down.

02:03 JB: One down. [chuckle]

02:04 JJ: Some number to go.

02:05 JB: Yeah. [laughter]

02:06 JJ: Why don’t you do the next one, killer?

02:08 JB: Okay, okay. Oh, this is good because as the former Microsoft employee, this is right in your wheelhouse.

02:13 JJ: Yeah.

02:14 JB: Windows Mixed Reality will be hyped to the hills, but Ken believes will fall flat.

02:19 JJ: Hyped to the hills?

02:21 JB: Hyped to the hills.

02:22 JJ: I’ve never heard that before.

02:23 JB: That’s…

02:23 JJ: Is that a Missouri thing?

02:24 JB: You can hype something to the edge of town, but if you hype it all the way to the hills…

02:28 JJ: It’s too far.

02:28 JB: Yeah, you’ve gone too far.

02:30 JJ: Okay. So he says Windows Mixed Reality, specifically Windows Mixed Reality, will fall flat?

02:35 JB: Yes. And so he then provides some context. Even though triple A titles will have MR headset support, no one wants to stand for a four-hour gaming session, and you can’t turn fast enough to play seated. These are very specific…

02:49 JJ: Okay, so I’m a gamer, I do a lot of eight-hour [chuckle] gaming sessions from time to time, props to Civ VI.

02:57 JB: Yes. [laughter]

02:58 JJ: Rise and Fall, everybody go get it.

03:00 JB: We’ll be doing a Civ VI podcast second this season.

03:02 JJ: Okay, so when he’s saying Windows Mixed Reality, I think he’s probably talking about HoloLens-style stuff.

03:06 JB: I assume.

03:08 JJ: It will fall flat because there’s still no HoloLens.

03:11 JB: Right.

03:12 JJ: That’s the real problem. The real problem is that there’s no device for me to use in order to use Windows Mixed Reality.

03:17 JB: That is a fair point. And all throw out a prediction: There will not be one this year from Microsoft.

03:23 JJ: Slow down, killer, you’re looking too far down the list already.

03:26 JB: No, no, no, I’m just… I’m just not paid…

03:27 JJ: No, no, no, hang on. We’ll wait on that one.

03:29 JB: I’m just trying to steal Ken’s thunder. That’s all.

03:31 JJ: Okay. Well, speaking of Ken’s thunder, number three is Blizzard Square Enix/someone will show a trailer for VR and/or AR, massively multiplayer online role-playing game, otherwise known as MMORPG.

03:42 JB: Yes, the MMORPG.

03:45 JJ: Okay. So if anybody’s reading out there these days, you’ve got your Ready Player Ones and the like, who are already talking about virtual reality shared spaces. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see a VR or AR MMORPG this year. I think it’s fine.

04:00 JB: Yeah. So I was interested in Sundance. The Sundance Film Festival had a very strong VR component this year. And so when I saw the word trailer, I was like, “Oh, Ken is gonna go movies.” But no, he went role-playing. I don’t know. It seems to me that developing a full, interactive game, a VR experience, that’s a massive multiplayer on that…

04:20 JJ: Cart before the horse.

04:22 JB: I don’t know that where they’re yet.

04:24 JJ: Considering we don’t have decent VR spaces to interact with other human beings in?

04:27 JB: Yeah. The idea that…

04:28 JJ: Facebook’s offering notwithstanding, and then other meeting places and stuff.

04:32 JB: And to actually do it’s gonna be really expensive. I wonder if it’s gonna be one of those things where the first one that gets done is High Rule, or some famous fictional world.

04:40 JJ: Maybe. Let’s look back over the history of MMORPGs just for funsies. What’s the first one you remember? ‘Cause the first one I remember is Ultima Online and then eventually EverQuest.

04:49 JB: Yeah. So I was gonna…

04:51 JJ: When did you start dabbling? [chuckle]

04:53 JB: I was gonna go with Dragon Quest on the Nintendo NES.

04:56 JJ: That’s not a MMORPG.

04:58 JB: The first one I really played… Oh, ’cause the online portion.

05:01 JJ: Massively multiplayer.

05:02 JB: Yeah. Yeah, ’cause all of my early RPG stuff was like Final Fantasy and whatever.

05:04 JJ: So here is going to be my modification to his prediction. So World of Warcraft still has something like 12 million… I don’t know. Sorry.

05:15 JB: A lot.

05:15 JJ: So my prediction is that World of Warcraft will screw around with AR or VR long before any actual game will develop around its bones as a way for Blizzard to experiment with VR in their most popular offering that has also grown way beyond the bounds of its original mandate. It’s got… You can play Bejeweled while you’re sitting around waiting for a raid to start in World of Warcraft at this point.

05:38 JB: Really?

05:38 JJ: Yeah. Yes, it’s literally a mini game inside the game that’s…

[overlapping conversation]

05:41 JB: I had no idea. [chuckle]

05:42 JJ: Yeah, it’s a whole thing, man. So that would be my modification to his prediction. I think an established player may start playing around with VR features or AR features, but I don’t think it’s likely that a MMORPG will develop in AR or VR this year.

05:55 JB: And my one caveat to this answer is actually his next prediction, which is Playstation VR grows larger. I could see there being some kind of role-playing game for the PSVR. That’s what they do.

06:09 JJ: So, Joe Bardi’s version of this is there will be a VR RPG developed at some point in the year, which has already been done.

06:16 JB: When can I play VR Grand Theft Auto? That’s really all I care about.

06:18 JJ: Oh.

06:19 JB: Rockstar’s gonna do that. They got the money. They’re probably experimenting with right now.

06:24 JJ: Yeah, they may be working up a full horse rig for Red Dead Redemption 2, for your VR needs.

06:29 JB: I don’t…

06:29 JJ: You just bring home a big robotic horse rig, and you can just hop on your horse rig in VR.

06:32 JB: That would be a…

06:34 JJ: You can mosey in VR in the new game, I hear.

06:37 JB: I feel that may be cost-prohibitive. But…

06:39 JJ: Maybe.

06:39 JB: Not the moseying, the horse rig.

06:41 JJ: Anybody can mosey.

06:42 JB: I’m just trying to picture what that would look like in my living room.

06:44 JJ: Alright. [chuckle] So number five, Oculus who.

06:47 JB: Oh, yes.

06:47 JJ: Now, I’m assuming he means that Oculus Rift is going to go the way of the dodo or something. I find that, frankly, really hard to imagine.

06:54 JB: So let’s have a little bit expanded conversation about Oculus. They recently announced a price drop. They’re locked in this death struggle with HTC, and both of them are then losing to Sony, although losing is a relative term.

07:10 JJ: I think the jury is out on that one right now. I haven’t seen sales figures for 2018.

07:15 JB: Yeah, no, so the sales figures as we headed into the end of last year were basically… The Vive was 550, the Oculus was 450, and the PS VR was a million.

07:22 JJ: A million plus, yeah. I remember. I’m still waiting on this year. So we could talk about the past as an indicator of the future, but the price drop, the change in hardware, and just… They’re gonna need to keep adding on to it. I don’t think it’s going to stay the barebones Oculus experience that we expected before. That we experienced before. And I think that… I have a hard time believing that Zuckerberg doesn’t figure out a way… Zuckerberg and crew doesn’t figure out a way to push this digital spaces thing they’re working on.

07:50 JB: I can’t see them giving up on it. That doesn’t seem possible.

07:53 JJ: I know that people in our own business… You think about Patrice. She’s excited about the idea of VR…

08:00 JB: Yeah.

08:00 JJ: Collaboration, and there are people out there that… They don’t wanna use it for gaming…

08:03 JB: No.

08:03 JJ: They don’t wanna use it for visualizing products, they wanna use it to interact with people over distance, and that’s Facebook’s…

08:09 JB: The ultimate tele-presence device.

08:11 JJ: Yeah. I think that probably… My prediction would be something like Oculus ends up gaining ground because people who just wanna use VR to hang out with their grandkids in Minnesota or something end up using it to do that.

08:27 JB: What I hear you saying is they’re a little closer to some kind of killer app than maybe some of the competitors are. Sony’s obviously killer app is games. That has a limited market.

08:38 JJ: I don’t think VR games are killer apps.

08:41 JB: No no no. But that’s what Sony is treating it as. I agree with you. I think that there’s a lot better and different uses than just playing.

08:49 JJ: Let me put it another way. We all use tools like hammers, and they’ve [chuckle] remained relatively unchanged for millenia because they’re, at their core, useful. I know that human beings are addicted to interacting with other human beings, and we continue to do that, despite all of the games that are placed around us to distract us from actually doing it.

09:08 JB: We just try to do it in the games now.

09:09 JJ: Yeah. So my prediction is that anything that leverages the dopamine of interacting with other human beings at its core is probably gonna be okay.

09:16 JB: Okay. So Oculus will be alright, that’s what we’re saying.

09:19 JJ: I think Oculus will be alright.

09:20 JB: All right.

09:20 JJ: But I’ll fight to the death with Ken over it or something.

09:23 JB: Yes. Yeah, yeah, we’ll set that up for a future podcast. The Oculus UFC.

09:28 JJ: No, I was gonna go with more like a Captain Kirk versus the lizard monster.

09:32 JB: Oh, oh yes. Arena fantastic.

09:34 JJ: Yeah, yeah, Arena.

09:35 JB: The Gorn. [chuckle]

09:37 JJ: Let’s see. [chuckle] Google waits until either right after, or right before… Well, there’s a way to head your bets. Apple’s WWDC to officially release ARCore to ensure that it has all the same features as ARKit or more.

09:49 JB: [chuckle] Seems like a pretty safe bet. And since ARKit 1.5 is already out there, Google doesn’t have to guess.

09:53 JJ: Yeah. All the feature are on display. They’re already leading the charge.

09:58 JB: And in fairness to Google here, we… And I do it, too, we like to get obsessed with who got there first, and who did it first, and whatever. These companies are all developing these things in concert with each other. It’s not like Apple was… It’s not like Google was like, “Oh my God, wall placement! Why did we not think of wall placement? Apple got there first, now we gotta put it in our… ” No. They all know they need wall placement and they’re all working towards that goal in the future.

10:20 JJ: Yeah.

10:21 JB: So.

10:21 JJ: As are we.

10:22 JB: As are we. Yes.

10:23 JJ: As are we.

10:24 JB: We’ve achieved it.

[laughter]

10:26 JJ: Notched.

[chuckle]

10:28 JJ: ARKit incorporates object recognition, perhaps from a small database of objects first. That looks like it has an update on it, Joe.

10:34 JB: It does, so as I just sort of referenced, the ARKit 1.5 is already in developer preview or whatever. And I would anticipate it will get officially released at WWDC, commemorating the one-year…

10:46 JJ: What does their object recognition consist of currently?

10:49 JB: You know what, I don’t… That was Ken’s prediction, and I don’t know… The big takeaway from what I’ve seen about ARKit 1.5 so far was the wall tracking. That was the big thing that they were leading with.

11:00 JJ: Ah, I gotcha. They did a vertical plane?

11:01 JB: Yes. Yeah. So I don’t know if…

11:03 JJ: Let me just dive in real quick for everybody who doesn’t know what object recognition is.

11:07 JB: Oh, yes, please, go ahead.

11:08 JJ: So object recognition, just as an example, we could use, say, a toy, say, your favorite toy, say, your Luke Skywalker vintage action doll from the 70s or whatever…

11:17 JB: Don’t touch.

11:19 JJ: Still in the packaging, of course.

11:20 JB: Of course.

11:21 JJ: You scan it with a device, the device says, “Oh, this matches some other image of this that I’ve already gotten via scraping the Internet for images that are already tagged with the name of this thing, and now I understand within a certain frame of possibility that this is the object which you are currently looking at.” And then it can potentially bring up information about it, a Wikipedia entry, maybe. Something like that. Or it could animate it. It pops off the device and then it starts walking around on your machine. That’s generally what object recognition is for. Object recognition is going to blow open the world of search, ’cause when you can search based on the thing you’re holding or looking at, or just wanna know about, I think it’ll… I think that would be my big prediction.

12:01 JB: Yeah, I always look at… So I have a six-year-old, who doesn’t really know how to read or write yet, he’s working on it.

12:06 JJ: Man, you’re screwing up, buddy.

12:07 JB: And… No, no, we’re trying, trust me. [laughter] And he likes to surf for things on YouTube and on Google, but he can’t actually type in words. But the ability to just hold up the device at whatever he wants to… He has a ton of Hulk action figures, if he wanted to find some Hulk action movies, if he just held the phone up and looked at a Hulk action figure and it brought up all this Hulk content, that seems like a pretty powerful idea. I did not see… I’m gonna go back and check, and perhaps when I post this, I’ll add a little note about whether or not object recognition was actually included in 1.5, I don’t think it was. I think that’s still coming.

12:40 JJ: I’ll be sure to remind you.

12:42 JB: Yeah.

12:43 JJ: Augmented reality still doesn’t see the all-elusive killer app, but more social medial integration. Ken, I literally just said that when we were talking about Oculus who, [laughter] as soon as there is a way to interact with human beings in AR, you’re gonna see more people using AR. Now, I don’t know what shape that takes.

13:00 JB: Right now, it looks like the shape it’s taking his masks, and…

13:04 JJ: Oh, you know, that’s interesting.

13:05 JB: I can put stuff all over my face, and I can…

13:06 JJ: I haven’t really considered Snapchat as human interaction, but I guess I should.

13:10 JB: Yes, you should, and that’s really one of the primary uses of AR, I would say at this point, is Snapchat, and the World filters, and Instagram is adding that stuff now, and I think Facebook added it as well.

13:21 JJ: Are they just toys or are human beings fundamentally involved in costuming, and AR is this really convenient way to do it?

13:27 JB: I don’t know. I think that…

13:30 JJ: Look, I go out, I go out in my shirt and tie to the business, or I go out in my nerd t-shirt to go play Star Wars Destiny with my friends; it’s all costuming.

13:38 JB: Right. And I think play is an essential part of humanity. So the idea that we all wanna play with stuff, it makes sense. I know Samsung is apparently adding their version of Animojis because the Animojis were so…

13:52 JJ: Because why the hell not?

13:53 JB: I have used them a bunch, it’s ridiculous. I have no idea why I am doing it.

13:58 JJ: Friend? What the hell is an Animoji?

14:01 JB: Oh, so with the iPhone 10, it will scan your face and make you look like…

14:06 JJ: Oh, God, I know exactly what you’re talking about, those things are horrible.

14:08 JB: Make you look like a panda, or an alien, or a piece of poop. And, yes, the poop emoji is represented. I think they’re gonna add a dragon in next. It’s gonna be great.

14:17 JJ: Can it talk like Benedict Cumberbatch?

14:20 JB: I don’t… Again, I’m not 12, though, so maybe if I was 12 I’d always want to talk to my friend as the unicorn and whatever, that will be a thing. Yeah. But that is coming as well. Well, I don’t really know if that fits into Ken’s AR prediction. I feel like I broke it out.

14:39 JJ: I’m gonna say that it does.

14:40 JB: Okay.

14:40 JJ: I’m gonna say that it works. Look, I don’t think that… No offense, Dr. Ken Moser, I don’t think you’re big on the Facebooks and the Snappychats with everybody. [chuckle] So your prediction, while maybe made in jest, I think is probably right.

14:54 JB: Yeah.

14:55 JJ: Yeah, alright. We’ll let you go.

14:56 JB: We’ll have to get Ken on, we’ll have Ken respond to our podcast.

14:58 JJ: Yeah, we’ll do a Ken respond podcast. [laughter] Magic Leap…, another ellipsis, finally puts out a legit video showing the real headset and no talk of pricing instead for developer edition. I’m not really sure how Ken wants this to land. I think that there are some developments happening right now that’ll kill Magic Leap before Magic Leap gets to do whatever it’s gonna do.

15:18 JB: Let’s wildly speculate, Joe. What do you mean?

15:20 JJ: Yeah, I love widely speculating. So remind me again what this headset that was just introduced was?

15:24 JB: They finally gave out some pictures of what looks like some swim goggles that have a string…

15:29 JJ: No, no. I’m not talking about that, I’m talking about the one that was just released, was it Intel that had a pair of black Starbuck-framed glasses that were AR-capable?

15:38 JB: Yes, they’re the Buddy Holly glasses as they were maybe slightly bigger than you’d remember.

15:44 JJ: I’ll wear them. I like chunky glasses.

15:45 JB: They look… The real 3D glasses you get at the theater, they look like a thicker version of that.

15:50 JJ: That’s not too bad.

15:50 JB: No, no. They looked like glasses. That was sort of the point.

15:54 JJ: And do we have any idea what their capabilities are?

15:55 JB: No. Well, you know, you know how this goes.

15:57 JJ: Maybe we haven’t killed Magic Leap, but I think that for all of the money that Magic Leap has spent, and I don’t wanna pile on the guys, ’cause I’m sure they’re doing good work. Without having anything really to show, they’re in a bit of a pickle.

16:13 JB: Well. So, look at it this way, remove all of the companies, and the egos, and the money that’s been spent involved. What you have are multiple competing technologies. They’re all trying to find a way to deliver the 3D images to your eyeballs with a system that’s as light as possible that you can wear on your face.

16:28 JJ: I’m gonna call it a tech singularity. Eventually they’re gonna get to the point where it’s something featherweight that you just… Like a contact lens or something.

16:35 JB: Magic Leap has some kind of… Is doing something with the visible light field, and they have come up with a technology…

16:41 JJ: Oh, they’re making a hologram. [chuckle]

16:42 JB: Right. That actually… It’s shooting a thing into your retina that’s matching just what your eye can actually see which manages to produce an image that it looks like it’s part of the light field, that’s great. Apple has a whole other technology that’s using some sort of… There was a patent released in the last few days that uses some kind of mirrors or whatever.

17:00 JJ: Am I getting old? ‘Cause the thought of shooting a laser, however low-power, into my eye is… It’s fundamentally disconcerting.

17:07 JB: I seem to remember being told over and over again, “Don’t shoot that laser in your eye…

17:10 JJ: Stop shooting that laser in your eye?

17:11 JB: Don’t shoot that at your brother,” all those kinds of things.

17:13 JJ: Yeah. Well, let’s be fair, me shining, or my brother shining a laser into my eye is a pretty crude application of laser technology.

17:19 JB: Yeah. Isn’t there… There’s always some idiot who shoots the laser at the police helicopter and then they go find him, and they make a big deal, ’cause he could blind the officer flying the helicopter, could he not?

17:29 JJ: Yeah. Well, since we’re not insane or completely uninformed, low-power lasers beamed at the correct settings into your eyes will be perfectly safe. Unless, of course, later we discover that they were not perfectly safe and we’ve all been blinding ourselves slowly.

17:45 JB: What if someone has tampered with what I think is just a promotional giveaway laser? Nevermind.

[laughter]

17:51 JJ: Please nobody hack my Magic Leaps so that you burn out my retinas.

17:54 JB: Yes, that’s right.

17:55 JJ: Alright. Google releases official Chrome support…

17:57 JB: Wanna talk about a massive class action law suit, just… Million people with no retinas.

18:01 JJ: Hey, Magic Leap, you’re screwed. Yeah.

[laughter]

18:05 JJ: Google releases official Chrome Support for ARKit ARCore at ARCore’s release, that’s not… I don’t even think that’s a prediction. I’m pretty sure when we saw the code for ARCore, they had preliminary web support for it.

18:15 JB: And and my understanding is they have floated that, yes, ARBrowser, AR is coming.

18:22 JJ: Yeah.

18:22 JB: Whatever that actually means.

18:24 JJ: Basically it just means that whatever AR apps you’re using that you’ve downloaded to your iPhone, instead of using an app, downloading an app, you’ll just visit a website. Which is a much lighter weight deployment. And I hate… Personally, I hate downloading apps especially when I know all the baggage that comes along with that app, like, “Hey, I’d like to have access to all of your stuff.” Not that they’re misusing it on purpose yet. If I can just visit a website and do it, lightweight URL implementation, I like it.

18:52 JB: It is sort of interesting that there was this long term argument, it was native apps better then web apps or vice versa.

19:00 JJ: Yeah.

19:00 JB: And the answer seems to be, they’re both useful in different situations.

19:01 JJ: They’re fine, yeah.

19:03 JB: Because exactly like you said, there are many businesses where maybe I wanna just toy with whatever they have but I don’t really need to have their app on my phone all the time.

19:10 JJ: I don’t like logging in to use a simple tool. I just don’t. I’ll find another way to use it if I have to do that.

19:17 JB: But, yeah. So that is definitely coming this year.

19:21 JJ: Alright.

19:22 JB: Mark it.

19:22 JJ: A new social media genre…

19:24 JB: I love this prediction, by the way.

19:25 JJ: Do you?

19:26 JB: Yes.

19:27 JJ: Tell me again what you love.

19:27 JB: I love it because it’s just open-ended enough that my imagination can really run with it.

19:32 JJ: Alright, so what is this prediction?

19:33 JB: This prediction is a new social media genre will emerge just as dumb and useless as the current ones, but all the kids will love it.

19:40 JJ: Ken, I think you’re… How old are you, Ken? Are you kicking into the sixties?

19:43 JB: [chuckle] Ken is not in his sixties.

19:45 JJ: Are you sure?

19:46 JB: But he is playing the angry old man at this point.

19:49 JJ: That’s fine.

19:49 JB: You need to get off my lawn.

19:50 JJ: He can be a curmudgeon if he wants. So when we were just talking earlier about Oculus, I think that some of his predictions, maybe step on his own toes and I think that [chuckle] that’s the one that emerges. I don’t know if I need to spend a ton of time on this but what do you think of number 10?

20:09 JB: So the thing that I’d say about… I’m fascinated by the idea of social media genres. What is a social media genre? Is eating Tide pods a social media genre?

20:18 JJ: No. Twitter is a social media genre. It sure is.

20:22 JB: But Twitter is a social media platform.

20:24 JJ: Yeah. Platforms can be genres too.

20:25 JB: So is platform and genre the same? Or are we using those interchangeably here?

20:28 JJ: No, it’s gonna develop as time goes on like…

20:30 JB: We should have forced Ken to be here. [chuckle]

20:32 JJ: Okay, let me rephrase. So, Star Wars vs Flash Gordon. You ready?

20:36 JB: Okay.

20:37 JJ: So Flash Gordon is nominally a fantasy sci-fi, fantasy pulp adventure, right?

20:41 JB: Yes.

20:42 JJ: It is technically in the same genre as Star Wars. Except Star Wars did it so much better on a massive scale and merchandised more successfully. I would call Star Wars a platform that is also a genre at this point.

20:56 JB: It is at this point.

20:56 JJ: While Flash Gordon is just in the genre.

21:00 JB: Okay.

21:00 JJ: Those were the comparisons that… I don’t know if it’s a great comparison…

21:03 JB: No, no, but I sort of see what you mean. Star Wars has elevated. Like the same way Marvel has transcended super hero movies and is now basically its own thing.

21:12 JJ: Or the way tnat Facebook has transcended social media as a genre to make its own platform of its own unique brand of social media. I think that Twitter is its own social media genre as well. It’s a sub genre of news, basically. That’s what I use Twitter for. I know a lot of people use Twitter for news, although we just read that wired story that said that everybody started using Facebook for news.

21:34 JB: Yes.

21:35 JJ: To disastrous effect.

21:36 JB: Yes. [chuckle] God help us all.

21:38 JJ: Anyway, we didn’t really land anywhere on that but let’s go to 11. Netflix will dabble in VR movies and content. I don’t really know how to evaluate this. I don’t think there’s enough device penetration for Netflix to give a crap.

21:48 JB: And I would… My reservation on this has to do with broadband speeds and whatnot. I don’t know that you can stream VR content.

21:57 JJ: I think you can. I think you can stream lower res VR content, ’cause if you can stream 4K video, and they can, you can stream the number of the pixel density that you’re looking for for a VR device. I think that it will be an unpleasant vertigo-inducing experience.

22:11 JB: Yeah. Well, that’s… [chuckle]

22:12 JJ: Because as you and I have learned, and as the entirety of our company has learned, if your frame rate isn’t high enough and if your pixel density is too low, you’re gonna get sick.

22:21 JB: Yes. That is how that works, yeah.

22:22 JJ: So maybe don’t do that, Netflix.

22:24 JB: I would… Yeah, and that’s sort of like…

22:26 JJ: Speaking of massive class-action lawsuits, Netflix made me vomit everywhere.

22:29 JB: Yeah, I know, right. [laughter] Do I get money back on my plan if the VR movies make me…

22:36 JJ: If you barf all over your PS4 maybe.

22:38 JB: The one thing I will say about that and I referenced Sundance a little earlier. There’s a ton of VR movie content and movie tie-ins…

22:46 JJ: That’s some boutique shit though.

22:47 JB: Well, but this year was the first year where it… It got over some kind of hump. It had a lot of buzz at that particular show.

22:56 JJ: Don’t worry, there’s more humps coming.

22:57 JB: There was a story about Redford viewed something and came out like all sweaty and agitated from the experience.

23:05 JJ: Okay, okay. So credit where credit is due. It wasn’t a VR movie but when I went to PAX in 2017 in Seattle, the Resident Evil: Biohazard setup was basically… It was like a short film, a semi-interactive short film. You had the PS VR on, you had a controller and you were sitting in a chair and your hands bound in the game.

23:28 JB: Okay.

23:29 JJ: And obviously, since it’s a VR headset, you can look around and do whatever but since you’re sitting in a chair with you hands bound, you can only look so far to your left and right.

23:37 JB: Right. Nice. [chuckle]

23:38 JJ: And there’s things happening behind you, it was incredibly scary… There’s potential there for sure.

23:44 JB: Yeah.

23:44 JJ: I think it’s more of an experience though, rather than a narrative.

23:48 JB: Yeah. Well that’s the… So you see all the traditional film makers are worried because they’re like, “Well, much of what we do is showing the audience where to look, and telling the audience where to look, and then they see the thing…

23:56 JJ: That’s fine keep doing that.

23:57 JB: But in VR, I can’t tell the audience where to look. The audience… It’s up to them where to look. So how do I devise storytelling strategy that funnels their attention where I want it. And that’s sort of going on right now. That to me, that’s fascinating because where that leads me to is are we actually beginning to view the merging of games and movies into basically one sort of entertainment?

24:20 JJ: Yeah, so game companies have been talking about that for a long time. Thankfully, they’ve been hiring better writers in general to prepare for this sort of thing. They’re still way, way, way behind the film industry in terms of writing quality.

24:28 JB: The amount of monies… It’s interesting cause the amount of money out there is greater than the film industry. And yet the level of talent is still lower when it comes to… The cache of being a screenwriter is greater than being a writer for video games. It is what it is.

24:43 JJ: I would agree with that, yeah.

24:45 JB: And it doesn’t mean that there aren’t great stories being told in games or whatever ’cause there are. But that’s just the way it works right now.

24:50 JJ: Yeah, there’s like a handful.

24:51 JB: But that’s going to either flip or they’re going to merge.

24:54 JJ: Maybe not, maybe not. There may be some hybrid genre in between the two that captures some of the glitz and glamour of Hollywood and some of the interactivity of gaming. I don’t know what that looks like. We’ll have to find out in hopefully the upcoming year.

25:07 JB: I think that’s more of a 2019/2020. But we’ll see.

25:10 JJ: Alright, number 12. Google realizing they will never be able to compete with Apple without more control over hardware, will implement stricter standards on minimal hardware, software support and features on new Android smartphones. Probably not. I’m gonna go with probably not.

25:25 JB: Did you see the stuff about the Android, what do we had a P… The one that’s not even out yet, it has the notch built in.

25:33 JJ: You know that I have not paid any attention.

25:35 JB: I thought you like…

25:37 JJ: I love my Android smartphone. But I’m not gonna go out of my way to look… Okay…

25:40 JB: You mean you’re not in the 1% that’s adopted Oreo yet?

25:42 JJ: Yeah. Let’s be clear. [chuckle] I love technology but I am no longer an early adopter.

25:49 JB: Yes, these things happen. But so anyway, I think Ken is right on this is what I’m saying. The “never compete with Apple” part may be a little strong. I think that they, Google, hoping to compete with Apple is exercising more control.

26:03 JJ: I think Google is competing with Apple fine.

26:05 JB: Yeah. The Pixel smartphone, obviously, an attempt to do an iPhone style vertical integration where they’re gonna be putting the latest best version of Android.

26:15 JJ: Doesn’t LG make that phone anyway?

26:17 JB: Probably, or HTC.

26:19 JJ: HTC whatever I can’t remember.

26:21 JB: But regardless, I think that that is true. The way the two companies have to sort of become like the other is Google needs to have more control over the hardware/software integration to provide a better user experience. Apple needs far more amounts of data to do things like voice assistant. Because of the way that they randomize their data and don’t collect the way that Google does, Siri is just not as smart. She just doesn’t know as much. And they’re legit falling behind on that so it’s like they have to become a little bit more like Google to catch up.

26:52 JJ: I wouldn’t know. I don’t really use voice search.

26:55 JB: Yes, you’re in the process of being left behind.

26:58 JJ: Alright, that’s fair. I’m looking forward to becoming a derelict.

27:01 JB: Yes. Well, you’re gonna have no friends because everybody just gonna have their one friend, the voice assistant that they use. But you won’t have that.

27:06 JJ: Oh, that’s fair. I don’t even have Facebook. I won’t have any friends.

27:09 JB: That’s good for you, by the way.

27:11 JJ: Alright. Number 13: Siri will do something with ARKit. That’s broad.

27:17 JB: See, again, this is… I got ahead of Ken again with my Siri, talking about Siri.

27:21 JJ: Oh, did you?

27:24 JB: Apple’s gonna have to do something.

27:25 JJ: Siri, what am I looking at? .

27:26 JB: Siri was the first, “the first”… I know they bought it, whatever. But then that was their…

27:32 JJ: There was voice search long before there was commercial voice search on a phone.

27:36 JB: Yes. Yes, there was. But they were the first of this current generation. And now they have fallen horribly behind. So could somehow merging Siri with ARKit be some way to differentiate it again and maybe get back some of the luster, perhaps?

27:51 JJ: Alexa, how do I make voice search relevant again?

27:54 JB: It does feel like that ship has sailed.

27:58 JJ: Alright. An AI will write a program to solve a problem. That’s not a surprise at all to me. I feel like any… So there are already artificial intelligences solving problems for us by creating their own solutions, solutions that we don’t really understand like there’ve been AI.

28:13 JB: Yeah. And sometimes freak us out.

28:15 JJ: And sometimes freak us out because we’re like, “Whoa. How did you get there?”

28:17 JB: Yeah, how did you get there?

28:18 JJ: And I think that they’re freaking us out because they’re in the uncanny valley of human capability. Like, “Oh. You’re like a child but you could potentially be Skynet.”

28:25 JB: Yes, that’s right. “What if you grow up… ”

28:28 JJ: “What if you grow up and you don’t like us?” We’ve all read, “I have no mouth yet I must scream,” a great Harlan Ellison short story where a terrifying AI controls our reality. But I think the idea that an AI would write a program to solve a problem, completely unsurprising.

28:45 JB: Correct me if I’m wrong. AIs have already created paintings. They’ve already created music at this point.

28:49 JJ: Yeah, an algorithm is going to replace all of us at some point.

28:50 JB: They have written screenplays. Not that any of these things were good but they have done them. And so…

28:55 JJ: Let’s be clear. Good is completely subjective.

29:00 JB: Yes.

29:01 JJ: Maybe the other AIs think it’s bad as hell.

29:01 JB: That’s true. That painting may have been really good to the other computers.

29:03 JJ: Yeah, they may have been amazing to that baby AI that made it.

29:07 JB: That is fair. That is fair.

29:08 JJ: So what might make more sense to say is that those things are not currently relatable to human beings. And that the work to be done in AI is making AI feel relatable to us by giving it some semblance of human emotion, conscience, dignity. None of us have dignity but you know what I mean.

29:24 JB: I kinda wanna start a group now that’s gonna protect AI from us because I feel like what you just described sounds terrible. We’re gonna try to turn it into us.

29:30 JJ: No. I think what’s more likely is that we’re going to try to install in it a semblance of… You know how we anthropomorphise dogs?

29:39 JB: Install? How dare you, sir.

29:41 JJ: Yeah. That’s how I interact with them. But, no, seriously, so dogs have grown up with us. They are part and parcel of humanity at this point. Many of them being unable to breed without our effort.

29:50 JB: I owned a pug. There are no wild pugs.

29:53 JJ: There are no wild pugs. That said, there is something about dogs growing up with us, and this may be an anthropocentric idea. There’s parts of them that have become humanized by virtue of growing with us versus say wolves who have done whatever… And they haven’t done whatever they wanted to do but for a long time ’cause we still have firearms.

30:16 JB: That’s right.

30:17 JJ: But dogs have definitely been domesticated in a way that makes them more relatable to us. So it may eventually be that AI becomes relatable to us as we train it or cultivate it. And I think that’s gonna lead right into number 15…

30:30 JB: Go ahead.

30:31 JJ: More talks on AI. And the overpaid, overhyped researchers that like to feel self important will meet at Elon Musk’s beckoning to make sure that we don’t create Skynet. [laughter] I don’t think it’s going to be as epic as all of that, but I think that humans in an effort to always make things that relate to us will continue to improve AI in a way that makes them relatable to us.

30:54 JB: Yes. First of all, I think overpaid, overhyped researchers love to meet regardless.

30:58 JJ: They do, yeah. You don’t need Elon Musk for that.

31:00 JB: Any prediction involving a meeting of them is solid with me. I’m fascinated by the idea that we could somehow prevent the creation of a thing. So, nobody in this scenario is attempting to create an evil AI on purpose. It’s always by accident.

31:20 JJ: Well, okay. So I think the… How does the storytelling for dystopia go? Skynet was tied in to all of the defense systems of the world.

31:30 JB: Yes, yes.

31:30 JJ: For whatever reason.

31:33 JB: So they turn it on, it starts learning exponentially, and in two seconds it’s like, “Okay, humans, done.” [laughter]

31:38 JJ: So, what I think is more likely to happen is that slowly, AI will be integrated into our society ’cause nothing happens quickly in the world, frankly. And I think that probably, we’ll get… Okay. So I think it’s ironic that my technophobia usually kicks in right around this time but right now, I feel pretty optimistic about the future of AI. I think that personally, I think it’s another form of life that we are helping to cultivate and we may eventually be eclipsed by, but I don’t think that it’s going to oust us or turn us into batteries. I don’t think that any of those scenarios are what’s going to happen.

32:14 JB: I actually worry about something a little more insidious which is, we are just going to become hopelessly dependent on it.

32:19 JJ: Well, that’s we’re already hopelessly dependent on electricity…

32:23 JB: Right. And all of these things.

32:24 JJ: Yeah. I think that eventually, it starts getting integrated into our bodies…

32:29 JB: Probably.

32:29 JJ: And then our consciousness becomes inextricably linked with artificial intelligence as well. I think probably, that’s the scariest version of the conversation for a lot of people.

32:38 JB: Yeah. And yet, when we get there in 70 years, everybody is just gonna be like, “Yeah. It’s fine.”

32:42 JJ: “Sweet! I have a voice in my head that tells me the solution to this trigonometry… ”

32:47 JB: “I’ve been waiting to get to my 15th birthday so that I get my R-5 9000 chip implanted.”

32:50 JJ: Yeah. I think that is the more likely scenario.

32:52 JB: “I’ve always wanted to do math.”

32:56 JJ: Yeah. As an internal low-key optimist about humanity, I think that it will eventually be to our benefit long-term.

33:03 JB: Yeah, yeah. I tend to agree. But anyway, yes. They will try to stop Skynet but there’s nothing you can do to stop Skynet. If an AI through no programming of our own, turns evil, first of all, that’s a leap right there. But second of all, I don’t think there’s any way to stop that.

33:19 JJ: Let’s start with “turns evil.” We need to unpack your statement.

33:21 JB: Yes. Turns individualistic in a way that runs contrary to human endeavors or… I think it’s on the planet.

33:30 JJ: I think that it will be unlikely that it will determine the eradication of a species as the best way to solve any particular problem but your mileage may vary.

33:38 JB: Have you really evaluated the problems on earth currently at this moment in time?

33:42 JJ: Earth doesn’t have any problems right now.

33:44 JB: Well.

33:45 JJ: Humans have problems. Earth doesn’t have any problems.

33:49 JB: I feel like if we did this for five more minutes, I can get you to come up with the reasoning Skynet would have for eliminating all the people.

33:54 JJ: Oh, I mean sure. [laughter]

33:56 JB: I keep going right down this rabbit hole.

33:58 JJ: I don’t get there, but just let me be optimistic for 10 seconds. HoloLens is either made an official product at a professional/business class level or it is shut down for more development. See my previous conversation about Windows mixed reality being “hyped to the hills.” I think it’s… Frankly, I think it’s “shit or get off the pot” time for Microsoft.

34:18 JB: Yeah. So they… What was it? Last year they said, “We are working on a second edition HoloLens. It will be out in 2019.”

34:23 JJ: Too late.

34:24 JB: I seem to remember that’s what they said.

34:25 JJ: Too late.

34:26 JB: At the time, we were like, “That seems way too late.” So 2019 is closer now. It’s less than a year away. But it does feel like there’s a whole bunch of other people who are either gonna get there first or…

34:38 JJ: You just reminded me I have to go pay off my student loan.

34:41 JB: Yes, it’s a while. But right now, in the Ether you have Magic Leap you have Intel has a solution, you have Apple is working on something, Google is working on something, is Amazon working on something, is Facebook… All of these companies are working on something and they’re all gonna land at the same time. And Microsoft has sort of enjoyed the entire playing fields to themselves up until right this second.

35:05 JJ: It might be a dead technology from the start.

35:08 JB: It was a proof of concept. It was like, “Look, this can happen. You can wear a thing on your face and you can show 3D…

35:13 JJ: Microsoft is still innovative.

35:15 JB: Yes, yes. They are.

35:16 JJ: Is that the game?

35:16 JB: That is. Yeah. Microsoft deserves a lot of credit for the HoloLens.

35:22 JJ: Speaking of things in Seattle, Amazon becomes a new category, a mega corporation… [laughter]

35:26 JB: I love this.

35:28 JJ: I love this one. Providing the majority of goods to consumers as well as providing the backend facilities for the majority of web content. Their brick and mortar store is a huge success until people realize there is nothing they can take home and they’re just ordering stuff in person to be delivered which they can do at home. [chuckle] So, having consumed a crap ton of cyberpunk dystopias, Amazon is already a mega corporation by the definition that we’re establishing here.

35:54 JB: Yeah.

35:55 JJ: Yeah.

35:56 JB: So I look at this sort in two ways. To me, this is like a five-year horizon prediction.

36:01 JJ: You think so?

36:01 JB: Because… Yeah.

36:03 JJ: So here, let’s start with some additional context. Amazon is working to provide a unique version of healthcare to its employees through some large conglomerate of companies?

36:13 JB: Yes.

36:14 JJ: Alright.

36:14 JB: Yeah. And I…

36:15 JJ: Get your health insurance from the company store.

36:18 JB: Yes. And for the record, that’s gonna fail.

36:21 JJ: We’ll see.

36:22 JB: We’re making predictions here, let’s go bold.

36:25 JJ: If I recall correctly, Amazon is also trying to build a small arcology in Seattle, the plastic forest or whatever.

36:32 JB: Oh, I don’t know.

36:32 JJ: Oh, you don’t know?

36:33 JB: I don’t even know what that is.

36:34 JJ: Yeah, so I’ll provide… Crap, I need to make a note to provide links, but it’s a thing.

36:39 JB: Okay.

36:40 JJ: Amazon has a lot of money and a lot of influence.

36:43 JB: They do. They made a profit. They’re profitable.

36:45 JJ: They made a profit. They’re out of the black this year. I think that companies that are that big have a natural tendency to try to warp the world to its image. You think about… They have core fundamentals as part of their brand. Sorry, they have fundamental ethics as part of their brand whether we agree with those ethics or not. And people who are determined to make large businesses out of whatever, nothing, are probably gonna keep trying to skew the world towards what they want it to look like in the first place.

37:13 JB: Yeah, yeah. I mean, and… Yeah, they will continue…

37:17 JJ: We are really getting a field today, by the way.

37:19 JB: Yeah, it’s all right. That’s okay. It’s our first one, season two. We’re out there.

37:23 JJ: Season two, baby.

37:24 JB: Yeah. Amazon will continue to do… In the last few weeks they started their own shipping company. That’s gonna…

37:34 JJ: Compete with UPS and FedEx. That’s some vertical integration.

37:37 JB: Right. And FedEx and UPS, immediately their stocks got beaten and the whole thing, because it was like, “Oh no.” So right now I feel like we have this sort of bias that Amazon will win all of these things. Amazon will win at groceries. Amazon will win at shipping.

37:51 JJ: We do that because their destiny was manifest when it came to shipping consumer goods to our home.

37:57 JB: Yes. They… Yeah.

38:01 JJ: However, there is a cautionary tale in the form of Facebook that was just sort of on display. Facebook turned into a media platform. It turned into a news agency, didn’t expect to do it and then had no idea how to recover from what they had stepped in.

38:12 JB: Right. And then it actually got rolled and had their own product used against them in ways they never anticipated.

38:18 JJ: Tough break, Zuck.

38:19 JB: Yeah.

38:20 JJ: Gotta watch out for the Russians.

38:21 JB: Yeah. We were both reading that Wired story in the last couple days about… It’s incredibly long. If you haven’t seen it, it’s awesome. I’ll link to it in the notes.

38:28 JJ: We’ll link to it.

38:30 JB: But it’s sort of about Facebook and Zuckerberg’s evolution over the last few years, and you can sort of see how Zuck is now a little more jaded on the back end.

38:40 JJ: “I can create incredibly efficient systems, so why can’t I just make this other system efficient, even though somebody else’s already done it this way? I’m an innovator, I’m a disruptor.” Those are nice thoughts, but… I hate to sound like my father. Sometimes the way you’ve already been doing the thing for a long time, is the best way to do the thing.

38:57 JB: Yes, yes. There are things that people have done for thousands of years that they do them that way ’cause they work.

39:02 JJ: Alright, so let’s jump around a little bit more. 18, a AAA AR game will be released by a major studio, either a first person shooter or puzzle game. Kids will love it for several months. Frankly, I don’t see AAA AR games coming around very often.

39:18 JB: I’m gonna again go with Ken here and say this is good, definitely gonna happen. There are too many companies trying to make AR games right now. Both Apple and Google are incentivising them to do so. They’re getting better placement in the App stores, etcetera.

39:35 JJ: Let’s define AAA here.

39:37 JB: Well, I think what he is saying is a company we’ve all heard of.

39:40 JJ: Okay. That’s not enough to be AAA.

39:42 JB: No, no, no. Right. But hold on, that was the major studio.

39:46 JJ: Okay.

39:46 JB: And he says first… I think first-person shooter, I’ll go even more specific. There’s going to be an AR game where we’re all running around with our phone shooting at each other. And somebody’s gonna make it work in a way that it’s really fun to play. And then we will all play it for like three months.

40:03 JJ: I’m just going to be dubious.

40:05 JB: Yeah, that’s all right.

40:06 JJ: I’m just dubious right now. This is the…

40:07 JB: I wanna point out, you had a battery backup system so you could Pokemon Go in the goddamn woods and not have to worry about running out of battery and you’re dubious of this claim, sir!

40:16 JJ: I am dubious of this claim. So, it’s the AAA claim that’s the interesting bit to me.

40:21 JB: Okay.

40:22 JJ: You talked about how much money is in movies.

40:24 JB: Yes.

40:24 JJ: And then you talked about how much money is in gaming. EA has a bunch of it.

40:28 JB: Yes!

40:28 JJ: Okay? EA hasn’t done a damn thing with AR.

40:30 JB: Yes, that’s true. But…

40:31 JJ: And I don’t think they have any interest in it, because it is… Hang on… Because it is this infinitesimal part of what they do. What they do is they take big licenses and games that everybody knows and loves and make iterations of them that are marginally better and then they sell them for the same amount of money for some amount of developmental work.

40:50 JB: Right.

40:51 JJ: Basically, you’re paying for expanded rosters in Madden every year.

40:54 JB: So isn’t this a good way for a much smaller-pocketed competitor to come in and…

41:00 JJ: A non AAA… I’m just saying, I’m quibbling with the semantics of it, okay? It’s not going to be a AAA developer, it is going to be some Indie who can be flexible and nimble and they can make something cool and just screw around with it. And then eventually, they find a way to make it fun and then EA or Activision snap up that methodology and then they make it better. I think that’s how you find a AAA AR game. Somebody makes a good one and then the other one steal the crap out of it.

41:32 JB: And probably skin it with Harry Potter or what, some kind of…

41:35 JJ: Call of Duty.

41:35 JB: Known IP.

41:36 JJ: No, no, no. You’ll have a Call of Duty AAA shooter as soon as somebody figures out a way to make a really fun AR shooter.

41:41 JB: Yeah. That seems true.

41:44 JJ: Yeah.

41:44 JB: Alright.

41:44 JJ: Alright. Let’s keep going. 19, the terms AR, MR and VR will be even more misused until everyone just assumes they all mean the same thing. So, in our defense [chuckle] Ken Moser, the distinction between them is often very subtle.

42:02 JB: It is.

42:03 JJ: And effectively meaningless to the laymen.

42:05 JB: Well, and the thing is funny about this particular prediction is I already tell people that AR and MR are the same thing and I do so because of things Ken told me. [laughter]

42:14 JJ: So prediction will be correct but that’s just like predicting that language will change. You need to stop wiggling…

42:20 JB: Oh yeah, you’re right, I’m wiggling.

42:21 JJ: I can hear it.

42:21 JB: Oh no.

42:22 JJ: Yeah. Predicting that people will misuse terms until the terms have no meaning is essentially just saying, “Human beings exist.” [laughter]

42:30 JB: Yeah, that’s right.

42:31 JJ: And use words.

42:32 JB: We will use the language.

42:33 JJ: Yeah, we’re gonna use the language to make it work the way we want it to work. That’s just how works, it’s a tool.

42:37 JB: But so for the record AR, MR, VR, same thing. Okay. Moving on.

42:40 JJ: All the same thing, got it. So diminished reality will be showcased on a mobile device. Yeah, I can see that happening considering we’re trying to do it right now.

42:47 JB: Yeah, we should have moved this one up way to the front too because…

42:50 JJ: Do you wanna talk diminished reality?

42:51 JB: Well, I just feel like of all the predictions that we’re making, there’s a lot of… Since we’re pretty much to the end of Ken’s list, we should say. This is…

43:01 JJ: This is not ordered by importance or…

43:02 JB: No, no.

43:02 JJ: Or temporal proximity.

43:05 JB: What I was gonna say was it may seem easy to just go and make it bunch of predictions about the future and whatever. But it is actually more difficult than it may appear. I think if we… I know, I won’t speak to you. If I tried to make a list of 20 predictions for the future for the next year in AR and VR my list be probably…

43:21 JJ: 20 of mine would be wrong.

43:23 JB: Significantly more ridiculous than the ones Ken came up with. So I wanna say that. “Diminished reality would be showcased on a mobile device” is a great prediction because diminished reality is still one of those things that very few people know what it is. And it really is going to be a big deal when it shows up. I will explain just really briefly. Augmented reality or mixed reality is the process of adding 3D imagery to an existing scene. So picture your smartphone window, you’re looking at your living room, you put in a couch, you have added something, you’ve augmented the scene. Diminished reality would be the removal of real things from that scene, so if you had a couch already in your living room, you could… The system will erase it from there and fill in the space around it based upon what was in the frame already so the rug will continue, the wall will be behind it, and now you have an empty space that you can place 3D objects into. That is diminished reality. It’s a powerful concept and it is going to show up by the end of this year.

44:13 JJ: Yeah, I would say that he’s absolutely correct there.

44:16 JB: Yeah, it almost seemed to me like it’s the missing piece of AR. AR is half way there. It needs to initially be able to add stuff and it needs to take stuff away and once you have a…

44:25 JJ: Yeah, you got the gas, you need the breaks, baby.

44:27 JB: Yeah, once you can play with the entire scene you really can really sort of do anything and the applications I think multiply at that point.

44:33 JJ: I could do anything?

44:34 JB: You could do anything.

44:35 JJ: I’m excited.

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44:44 JJ: Alright. So that’s it for this episode of the In Reality Podcast.

44:49 JB: It’s good to be back.

44:50 JJ: Except for this last prediction which I’m gonna do for funsies in the tail end of the show. All of the above will be rendered inconsequential by an inevitable impending nuclear conflict. Gee, thanks Ken.

45:00 JB: I feel like, I feel like the Olympics really put pump the breaks on that impending nuclear conflict.

45:05 JJ: Look man, ban the bomb. Okay.

45:06 JB: Could we really have a nuclear war with people who sent 100 cheerleaders to an event. I don’t think we can do it.

45:12 JJ: Look, I think that human beings in general don’t want to be dead.

45:18 JB: Yes.

45:19 JJ: And also don’t want to have to kill all of the other people. So I’m hopeful for no impending nuclear conflict.

45:25 JB: I agree with the first part. [laughter]

45:28 JJ: Having played a lot of Civilization I think it’ll probably okay.

45:33 JB: Yeah.

45:34 JJ: That’s my model for the world. Civilization.

45:37 JB: Yeah. My feeling is on this is…

45:39 JJ: By virtue of the fact that you cannot take over another civilization cities, I think we’ll all be okay.

45:43 JB: Yeah. And I…

45:45 JJ: He’s feckless.

45:46 JB: That’s true. That is true. I have am generally feckless.

45:49 JJ: Oh that’s the takeaway. That’s the outtake right there everybody. “I’m generally feckless.” [laughter] Joe Bardi, 2018.

45:56 JB: Am I feckless? If you say so.

45:57 JJ: Well, that’s it for us today. And In Reality, I’m Joe Johnson.

46:00 JB: And I’m Joe Bardi.

46:01 JJ: And we’ll talk to you soon.

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